Energy: oil fell sharply in 2025, weighed on by excess supply. Despite numerous geopolitical tensions, concerns about oversupply set the tone. The two main global benchmarks, Brent and WTI, fell by 18.60% and 20% respectively in 2025. Supply dynamics explain the drop in prices. OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) have increased their output by 2.9 million barrels a day since April 2025 while, alongside this, US production has remained at high levels. However, 2025 did see major geopolitical disruptions. Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East threatened supply chains. In June, tensions between Iran and Israel disrupted the Strait of Hormuz. More recently, the maritime blockade in Venezuela and the capture of its President Nicolas Maduro by the United States. However, these events triggered only temporary spikes. The market believes that global supply is sufficient to offset these risks, all the more so as the market has so far never faced a real disruption to supply.
Precious metals: unlike oil, precious metals posted historic performances in 2025. The gold medal is actually awrded to silver, whose price surged 147%. This rally reflects silver's dual nature: a safe haven and an industrial raw material. Demand remains strong, driven by growing needs for solar panels and electronics. Silver's designation as a critical mineral in the United States has also boosted investor interest. At the same time, the market is facing low inventories and insufficient supply, putting pressure on prices. 2025 was also an exceptional vintage year for gold, which rose by 64.60%. This is the strongest annual gain for the yellow metal in over 40 years. Several factors fueled the rise. First, the fall in the US dollar, making gold more attractive for holders of other currencies. Second, purchases by central banks, which bought gold heavily to diversify reserves and reduce their dependence on the US dollar. Moreover, persistent international tensions strengthened the metal's safe-haven status. Finally, enacted and anticipated interest-rate cuts continue to support prices, as gold pays no yield and therefore benefits from a low-rate environment.
Industrial metals: copper is reaffirming its central role in modern societies. The "barometer” of the global economy saw its price rise 43% to USD 12,510 per metric ton in London (cash price). Demand is driven by two structural engines: the development of data centers for artificial intelligence (AI) and the expansion of renewable energy. On the supply side, major accidents at mines in Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Chile disrupted production. Against this backdrop, global supply is struggling to keep up with demand. The US political context also played a key role. Donald Trump's threat to impose 50% tariffs on copper imports prompted a rush by US importers to secure inventories, amplifying the price surge.
Agricultural products: the agricultural sector had a difficult time in 2025, with the prices of most products ending the year down. Rising global supply and often subdued demand explain the overall trend. Wheat (-8% in 2025) and corn (-4%) prices lost ground in Chicago, weighed down by global production and inventories that remain high. Soybeans (+3.60%) fared better thanks to a warming of diplomatic relations between Beijing and Washington, which allowed a resumption of Chinese imports of US soybeans.
