That caution is worth noting because consumer spending drives seventy percent of the U.S. economy. When a giant like Home Depot says the drill bits are moving but the kitchen remodels are not, the signal matters well beyond suburban hardware aisles. A granite countertop is an investment in permanence; a caulk gun is a stopgap. Americans, it seems, are choosing the latter.

This week, that shift in spending behavior collides with two other forces shaping markets: the Federal Reserve's dance around interest-rate cuts and the continuing drag of trade tariffs. Together, they form the uneasy backdrop to the late-summer trading lull. Futures barely budged Tuesday morning—the Dow fractionally higher, the S&P and Nasdaq fractionally lower—suggesting investors are waiting for someone, or something, to set the tone.

Enter the Fed. Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, widely seen as a candidate to succeed Jerome Powell, has endorsed three rate cuts this year, echoing President Trump's calls for cheaper money. The market is pricing in two. Jackson Hole, the central bank's annual symposium, opens later this week, and Powell's remarks will be dissected for any hint of how far the Fed is willing to go. For now, the ambiguity is feeding the market's hush.

The tariff question lingers as well. Levies introduced by the Trump administration have already dented consumer confidence, and while S&P Global has maintained America's AA+ credit rating—arguing that tariff revenue offsets the fiscal cost of tax cuts and new spending. I don't know about you, but I think the logic feels precarious. It's not unlike keeping the household solvent by selling the furniture.

Elsewhere, corporate news offered sharper movements. Intel surged more than five percent after SoftBank poured $2 billion into the chipmaker, underscoring how semiconductors remain at the center of geopolitics and capital flows. Palo Alto Networks projected strong revenue growth into 2026, buoying cybersecurity stocks. Medtronic, meanwhile, shuffled its board under pressure from activist investors at Elliott Management.

And abroad, oil prices dropped on whispers of possible peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States. If sanctions on Russian crude were lifted, global supply could swell, reshaping energy markets overnight. The irony is rich: traders who fear war also fear its absence, if it means a flood of oil.

Markets like clarity, and at the moment, clarity is in short supply. We don't yet know if Americans are merely pausing or if they're retreating. We don't know whether the Fed will cut once, twice, or three times, or whether tariffs will steady the ship or shake it further. 

In the Asia-Pacific markets, two distinct camps are visible. Australia, Taiwan and South Korea are down 0.5% to 1%. The Sydney Stock Exchange is being penalized by the fall of its star pharmaceutical company, CSL, following the announcement of a major cost-cutting plan and its plan to spin off its vaccines division. India rises moderately, while China and Japan are slightly down. European leading indicators remain bullish.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: in the United States, building permits and housing starts will be released. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 98 004
  • Gold: $3,339
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $66.01 (WTI) $62.11
  • United States 10 years: 4.31%
  • BITCOIN: $115,620

In corporate news:

  • Xpeng narrowed its Q2 loss to 477.8 million yuan from 1.28 billion yuan last year, as revenue more than doubled to 18.3 billion yuan on record vehicle deliveries and improved margins.
  • Home Depot posted a 4.9% revenue increase in Q2 to $45.28 billion, driven by strength in small home improvement projects and pro customer growth, while reaffirming its full-year outlook despite macroeconomic headwinds and tariff pressures.
  • Steel Dynamics will acquire the remaining 55% stake in New Process Steel, with the deal subject to regulatory approvals.
  • Diamondback Energy's unit Viper Energy completed its $4.1 billion all-stock acquisition of Sitio Royalties and raised its Q3 production guidance.
  • Medtronic raised its FY26 profit outlook and announced new board appointments and growth committees after Elliott Investment Management became a major shareholder.
  • Amer Sports beat Q2 estimates and raised its full-year guidance, expecting 20–21% revenue growth and EPS of $0.77–$0.82.
  • Intel secured a $2 billion equity investment from SoftBank, making it the chipmaker’s sixth-largest shareholder, as it works to regain competitiveness in the AI chip space.
  • Nvidia is developing a more powerful AI chip for China than the current H20 model, pending U.S. regulatory approval.
  • Databricks is reportedly raising its valuation above $100 billion in a new funding round, reflecting investor enthusiasm for AI-focused firms.
  • Best Buy expanded its online marketplace, doubling its product range with offerings from third-party sellers.
  • DoorDash's acquisition of Deliveroo will be reviewed by the European Commission under a simplified procedure, with a decision expected by September 19.
  • Glencore has submitted RIGI applications for two copper projects in Argentina, aiming to expand its mining operations in the region.
  • Tesla has launched the six-seat Model Y L in China, with orders starting at approximately 339,000 yuan ($47,184).
  • Palo Alto Networks anticipates a $1 billion revenue increase in the coming fiscal year, driven by strong sales and subscription revenue, alongside the retirement of founder and CTO Nir Zuk.
  • BHP Group reported a 26% decline in full-year profit and declared a lower dividend due to a drop in iron ore and coal prices, despite selling its Brazilian gold and copper assets for $465 million.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Arista Networks Inc: Baptista Research downgrades to hold from outperform and raises the target price from USD 107.40 to USD 148.50.
  • Caterpillar Inc.: Evercore ISI upgrades to outperform from in-line with a price target raised from USD 373 to USD 476.
  • Gilead Sciences, Inc.: Daiwa Securities upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from USD 104 to USD 128.
  • Pfizer, Inc.: Baptista Research downgrades to hold from outperform with a target price of USD 27.70.
  • Prologis, Inc.: Mizuho Securities upgrades to outperform from neutral and raises the target price from USD 109 to USD 118.
  • Affirm Holdings, Inc.: JP Morgan maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 69 to USD 84.
  • Broadcom Inc.: TD Cowen maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 290 to USD 355.
  • Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd: TD Cowen maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 95 to USD 140.
  • Dollar Tree, Inc.: Piper Sandler & Co maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 93 to USD 112.
  • Marvell Technology Group Ltd: TD Cowen maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 70 to USD 90.
  • Nvidia Corporation: TD Cowen maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 175 to USD 235.
  • Palantir Technologies Inc.: Freedom Broker maintains its sell recommendation and raises the target price from USD 80 to USD 125.
  • Robinhood Markets, Inc.: Bernstein maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 105 to USD 160.