Can Old Lime Bikes and Hard Disks Counter China's Rare-Earth Chokehold? -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil trades 1.9% higher at $65.30 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is up 3.9% at 39.57 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Gold futures are up 0.4% at $4,932.70 a troy ounce.

--LME three-month copper futures are up 1.9% to $13,074 a metric ton.

TOP STORY:

Can Old Lime Bikes and Hard Disks Counter China's Rare-Earth Chokehold?

America's next rare-earth mine is 2,000 metric tons of junk sitting in boxes in Mesa, Ariz.

The hoard contains electric motors from an assortment of expired electronic equipment, from e-bikes to drones, MRI scanners to hard-disk drives. They represent the hope that old gadgets, not new mines, are the fastest way to loosen China's chokehold over the supply of rare-earth metals that are essential for the modern world.

China mines three-fifths of the world's rare earths-metals such as neodymium and dysprosium-and has more than 90% of the capacity for refining them, according to the International Energy Agency. Beijing flexed its muscles last year, using rare-earth export restrictions as a weapon in the trade war with the U.S. New mining projects are under way in the U.S. and Europe-but building a mine can take a decade.

OTHER STORIES:

Natural-Gas Prices Soar as U.S. Braces for Arctic Blast

Natural-gas prices have jumped 63% this week in response to forecasts calling for some of the coldest, snowiest weather in years to freeze the country from the West Texas desert to the Great Lakes.

The forecasts have stoked fears of a repeat of the deadly winter storm that froze Texas in 2021 and left millions of people without electricity for days. Energy producers and utilities are preparing for the worst. The Energy Department late Thursday ordered grid operators to be prepared to take extraordinary steps to tap in to backup power generation.

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SLB Eyes More International Activity as It Moves Past Challenging 2025 -- Update

SLB logged higher fourth-quarter revenue and said some of the challenges it faced last year are behind it, as the oilfield-services company stands to benefit from increasing international activity.

Chief Executive Olivier Le Peuch on Friday said that SLB is well positioned to capitalize on accelerating rig activity across the Middle East. The company is also receiving heightened attention from Wall Street due to surging interest in Venezuelan oil.

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Aluminum Fee Is Likely to Stay High, Even With Tariff Relief

Alcoa says the tariff-inflated premiums that U.S. aluminum buyers are paying likely won't recede even if a deal is reached this year to scale back the 50% duty on aluminum from Canada.

Canada is the largest supplier of imported aluminum to the U.S., but it isn't the only one. As long as the 50% duty remains on imports from other countries, Alcoa Chief Executive William Oplinger said the premium would remain elevated, as suppliers seek to recoup the cost of tariffs.

MARKET TALKS:

U.S. Natural Gas Adds to Gains in Choppy Trade -- Market Talk

0851 ET - U.S. natural gas futures rise in volatile early trade, adding to the week's record-setting gains on the winter blast that's pushing up heating demand. "After surpassing the February contract intraday height of $5.02 from December, fewer shorts are left to stop out, dousing a key element of the price surge," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Physical market prices have begun soaring ahead of what's likely to be the coldest storage week of the shale era, he says. The Henry Hub spot price reached $8.14/mmBtu yesterday while hubs serving the Chicago and New England areas rose as high as $23.93 and $30, respectively. "Still higher daily figures lie ahead." The Nymex February contract is up 1.6% at $5.124/mmBtu.([e-mail])

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Copper Back Above $13,000 on Supply Concerns, U.S. Dollar Weakness -- Market Talk

1346 GMT - Copper prices rise back above $13,000 over a weakening U.S. dollar, persistent supply disruptions and easing fears over trade frictions between Washington and Europe. Futures on the London Metal Exchange are up 1.6% to $13,044 a metric ton and on track for a weekly gain of more than 1.5%. The U.S. dollar is instead on track for its first weekly decline of the year, making commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies. Meanwhile, Capstone Copper said Thursday that operations at the Mantoverde copper and gold mine in Chile are largely halted amid a three-week labor strike. "Workers have blocked access to the site, which can produce around 106,000 tons per year," analysts at ANZ say. "There are no plans to resume wage talks at this stage."([e-mail])

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Oil Headed for Weekly Gains on Iran, U.S. Cold-Blast Concerns -- Market Talk

1337 GMT - Oil prices extend gains, driven by concerns over Iran and a cold blast in the U.S. threatening oil production. Brent crude rises 1.8% to $65.19 a barrel, while WTI is up 1.7% to $59.96 a barrel. Both benchmarks are set for weekly gains, also supported by supply disruptions, with oil production at Kazakhstan's largest oil field still halted. However, "we do not expect the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil to settle at $65 in the long term," analysts at Commerzbank say. "As soon as the situation on the supply side eases, prices are likely to fall." ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Ends Lower on Weaker Rival Oils, Profit-Taking -- Market Talk

1012 GMT - Palm oil prices ended lower. Weak overnight performance in rival oils and the prospect of profit-taking after the recent rally led to softer trade, Kenanga Futures analysts say in a note. However, they note that downside pressure is cushioned by seasonally lower production in Indonesia and Malaysia and festive-period buying, while palm oil's price discount to soybean oil continues to support demand. Kenanga Futures sees support for CPO futures at 4,115 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,225 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for April delivery closed 23 ringgit lower at 4,174 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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Crude Futures Rise as Traders Monitor Iran Tensions -- Market Talk

0852 GMT - Oil prices rise in early trading as investors closely monitor developments in Iran, with Brent crude up 0.9% to $64.66 a barrel and WTI gaining 0.7% to $59.36 a barrel. President Trump said the U.S. is watching Tehran closely and has an "armada" heading toward the region, though he said he hopes it won't be needed. The gains come despite signs of progress in Ukraine peace talks and persistent concerns about excess supply in global markets. "Signs of ample supply remain evident, including a second straight weekly rise in U.S. crude inventories to the highest level since November, the return of flows in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, and Venezuelan barrels re-entering global markets following recent U.S. intervention," Soojin Kim from MUFG says. ([e-mail])

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Gold Hits Fresh Record, Nearing $5,000 -- Market Talk

0836 GMT - Gold prices surged to a fresh record, pushing closer to the $5,000-an-ounce milestone on heightened geopolitical risks, economic uncertainty and a weaker U.S. dollar. Futures in New York rise 0.5% to $4,939.20 a troy ounce after hitting $4,970 earlier in the session. Silver futures climb 1.8% to $98.04 an ounce. "The rally is being fueled by FOMO [fear of missing out], alongside continued focus on broader hard-asset-supportive drivers following a slight easing in U.S.-EU tensions," Saxo Bank analysts say. "Central-bank demand remains firm, the dollar continues to weaken, and governments keep issuing debt with little clarity on long-term repayment." Meanwhile, PCE inflation data--the Fed's preferred inflation gauge--came in largely in line with forecasts in November, reinforcing expectations that the U.S. central bank will hold rates steady next week. ([e-mail])

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Gold Looks Increasingly Like a Hedge Against Trump's Unpredictability -- Market Talk

0739 GMT - Gold increasingly looks like a hedge against President Trump's "unpredictability," says Pepperstone's Chris Weston in a note. While many traders framed gold as a hedge against the risk of a U.S.-Europe tariff war amid Trump's pursuit of Greenland, he notes the yellow metal's gains haven't unwound despite the removal of the tariff threat. Global central banks, particularly those from emerging markets, are finding "almost daily" reasons to rotate reserves out of the U.S. dollar and into gold, the head of research adds. He believes spot gold and gold futures could hit the $5,000 level in a "matter of time," with the target now clearly in sight and pulling in buyers. Spot gold is 0.3% higher at $4,953.57 a troy ounce. ([e-mail])

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Comex Gold Futures' Bullish Momentum Remains Strong, Daily Chart Shows -- Market Talk

0700 GMT - Comex gold futures' bullish momentum remains strong, based on the daily chart, RHB Retail Research's Aiman Kamil Bin Ahmad Shauqi says in a research report. The futures closed near the session's high on Thursday, forming a fresh "higher high" and reinforcing prevailing bullish structure, the analyst says. The relative strength index is now pointing upward, indicating that strong bullish momentum is in play, the analyst says. With the commodity's latest price action decisively pointing toward the $5,000/oz level, the technical setup remains constructive for an extended move toward $5,200/oz, the analyst adds. Spot gold is 0.3% higher at $4,953.27/oz. ([e-mail])

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Perusahaan Gas Negara Expects Stronger Earnings in 2026 -- Market Talk

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01-23-26 0921ET