The CAC40 continues to fluctuate within a range of 8,050/8,150 and has not broken out of it since November 26: this morning, the index tested the top of its channel, gaining +1.2%, but then slowed significantly, with gains halved to +0.6%, while Wall Street took a turn for the worse after a hesitant opening: the S&P 500 is down 0.4%, the Nasdaq is down nearly 0.7%, and the Dow Jones is holding steady at around 48,400 (-0.2%).

Caution seems to be prevailing at the start of the last full week of 2025, which promises to be particularly busy in terms of key economic statistics.
The NFP, for example, will be published tomorrow, with the consensus betting that the US economy created only 35,000 non-farm jobs in November.

These figures, released more than two weeks late due to the federal government shutdown, should also include estimates of job creation in October, estimated at around 55,000 jobs (estimate released a month and a half late), but not the unemployment rate for that month, as the paralysis of the Department of Labor prevented the collection of certain data.

In addition, the November inflation report, scheduled for Thursday, is expected to show that consumer prices (CPI) rose 3% year-on-year, unchanged from September, given that October data will never be published due to the shutdown.

Between the Fed's unclear message and disappointment over Oracle's and then Broadcom's results, stress is resurfacing: the CBOE's VIX index, which acts as a "fear gauge" on Wall Street, is rebounding +8% to around 17.00.

For Amundi, investors will now have to contend with what Europe's leading asset manager considers to be a new era of "controlled disorder."

"Portfolios are exposed to both opportunities and threats at a time when innovations that improve productivity are also creating winners and losers," said Monica Defend, director of the Amundi Investment Institute.

This view is shared by Scott Chronert, Citi's strategist, who believes that the coming year will continue to be characterized by very uneven performance between AI specialists and other companies that have no choice but to adapt to this new technological landscape, a configuration known as the "K-shaped economy" that benefits a few winners but penalizes the less fortunate.

However, the analyst believes that the new year could be very favorable for the stock markets, albeit with much greater volatility.

"Starting from such high valuation levels is a drag on the market, but not an insurmountable obstacle," he says.

"On the other hand, it greatly increases the pressure on fundamentals to justify the continued rise," he warns.

After three years of continuous growth in New York, Scott Chronert still sees the S&P rising more than 12% in 2026 to reach the 7,700-point threshold, after gains that already reach 16% this year.

While the end of the year is usually a quiet period on the markets, important economic indicators scheduled for release this week could stimulate trading.

Investors will also be watching announcements from central banks, starting with the ECB, which is not expected to spring any surprises on Thursday with key interest rates likely to remain unchanged.

The institution's president, Christine Lagarde, is expected to reaffirm that monetary policy is currently in a "good position," but the new growth and inflation projections to be presented at the meeting could change investor expectations.

In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to decide on Thursday to cut rates by a quarter of a point in order to revive economic growth, which has been stagnant for several quarters (Gilts are easing from -2 points to 4.495%).

Conversely, the Bank of Japan is preparing to raise its interest rate again by 25 basis points, after having increased the cost of credit three times since the beginning of 2024: the yield on 10-year bonds is at a record high for the year and for the last 17 years at 1.96% (+1.3 points).

On the bond market, rates continue to be volatile and the yield on 10-year US government bonds, which had fallen sharply to 4.10% on Thursday, remains above 4.16% (after 4.1950% on Friday), despite the weakening of the dollar.

The euro, which had returned to above 1.17 on Friday, rose 0.25% on Monday to 1.1765, its highest level in two months against the greenback, a rise that could pave the way, according to some currency traders, for a return to the annual high of 1.1850 by the end of the year, in the event of an unaccommodating speech by the ECB.

Up 1% to $4,370, gold continues its inexorable rise, which could send it, according to industry experts, towards the $4,460 target in the short term.
Oil, on the other hand, is testing its annual lows of April 8 and May 5, with Brent down 1% to $650.50 and WTI down 1.2% to $56.80.

Another factor likely to significantly increase market volatility will occur on Friday, with the "four witches," i.e., the expiration of four different types of futures and options contracts, which most often also leads to an increase in volumes as traders unwind their hedging positions.