Days like 28 January 2026 always bring to mind my colleagues on night duty. Most of the time, they're half-slumped on their sofas, sipping fizzy drinks while playing League of Legends, one hand perpetually pressing F5 in case a crucial piece of news drops - the sort that would expose any suspicion of idleness. But on Wednesdays like this, there's no room for slacking. They'll need to be everywhere at once: the Fed meeting and its fallout from 7:00pm, Wall Street's closing bell and market wrap-up shortly after, then the cascade of results from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, IBM and Lam Research from 9:00pm onwards. (Dear night colleagues, please don’t be offended - this is meant humorously and with affection).

Yesterday, equity markets generally extended their gains, buoyed by tech stocks in the US and banks in Europe. The S&P 500 climbed to a record high of 6,979 points, brushing up against the symbolic 7,000 mark that remains unbroken. While equities continue their stately upward march, volatility is brewing elsewhere - nowhere more dramatically than in the currency markets. The dollar has slumped to $1.20 to the euro, a four-and-a-half-year low, and a ten-year low against the Swiss franc. I won't rehash the full backstory again, but the manner in which the White House is upending the established order is clearly weighing on the greenback. The latest leg down was spurred by a not-so-cryptic comment from Donald Trump claiming the dollar is "in great shape" - a remark interpreted by markets as a sign that Washington is currently content with the status quo.

It is no secret that the Trump administration considers the dollar overvalued - or rather, believes that some foreign currencies are artificially weak due to state-led manipulation aimed at boosting export competitiveness. A weaker dollar benefits US multinationals, but it comes at a cost: imports become more expensive, fuelling inflation. Trump's comment lands at a particularly sensitive moment, with investor confidence in US stability already eroded. The result is a double-edged hit to sentiment. Like most unusual financial events, this may not prove fatal as long as it remains within tolerable bounds in the eyes of the market.

The dollar's weakness is turbocharging commodity prices, since they are denominated in dollars and thus cheaper for foreign buyers. Gold surged to $5,259 per ounce, silver to $115, and Brent crude to nearly $67 per barrel. A timely reminder for investors: a falling dollar can be damaging for certain products, particularly ETFs exposed to the US market. I've dug out a piece from last year that lays out the mechanics. Reminder number two: an overly strong euro has implications for European monetary policy. Indeed, a senior ECB official told the Financial Times last night that the central bank could consider another rate cut if the dollar continues its descent.

Beyond this commodity-driven volatility, another eye-catching market move was the sharp narrowing of the spread between French and German 10-year government bonds, the so-called OAT-Bund spread. The survival of the French government through two no-confidence votes on the expenditure portion of the 2026 budget bill, and the bill's transfer to the Senate, have provided some reassurance over its stability. Challenges remain, but the market now perceives the situation as less precarious.

As noted earlier, today's key focal points include corporate earnings (with LVMH and ASML having reported last night in Europe, and US Big Tech lined up this evening), followed by the Fed's interest rate decision at 7:00pm and Jerome Powell's press conference from 7:30pm. But that's not all. US domestic politics remains in turmoil, with calls mounting for the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem after the ICE debacle in Minneapolis, and fears of a looming government shutdown by the weekend. On predictive markets, the odds of a shutdown by Saturday currently stand at 75%.

In Asia-Pacific, Japan appears uncertain, leaving the Nikkei 225 flat by the close. Renewed appetite for tech stocks, in anticipation of strong US earnings and early positive signs from Texas Instruments and ASML this morning, lifted Hong Kong (+2.3%) and the remarkable South Korean market (+1.7%) - which, I read this morning, now boasts a greater cumulative market capitalisation than Germany. India and Taiwan are posting more modest gains. Australia is slightly down after inflation data stoked fears of a February rate hike. Europe is expected to open higher, led by tech.

Today's ecoomic highlights:

Today: Australia's annual and monthly inflation rates along with the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI will be released; in Germany, the GfK Consumer Confidence index will be unveiled; in Italy, consumer and business confidence indices will be announced; in the United States, the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, EIA Gasoline and Crude Oil Stocks Changes, the Fed Interest Rate Decision, and the Fed Press Conference are on the agenda; in Canada, the BoC Interest Rate Decision, BoC Monetary Policy Report, and BoC Press Conference are expected. See the full calendar here.

  • GBP / USD: US$1.38
  • Gold: US$5,267.02
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): US$66.77
  • United States 10 years: 4.23%
  • BITCOIN: US$89,130.7

In corporate news:

  • Shell is seeking an OFAC license for the Loran field in Trinidad and Tobago, with hopes to produce gas from the Dragon field by Q4 2027.
  • Moody's affirmed the Baa1 long-term issuer rating of Aberdeen Group due to its strong revenue and liquidity profile, with a stable outlook.
  • Livingbridge is reportedly planning a GBP1 billion IPO of Loveholidays in London, potentially launching as early as March.
  • Halyk Bank appointed Mikhail Khasin as its new deputy CEO, responsible for information technology.
  • Energean aims to have at least one gas asset in West Africa by the end of 2026, with Angola and Senegal as potential entry points.
  • Paragon Banking affirmed its guidance after a strong first quarter, with new lending increasing by 6.9% year-on-year.
  • Cranswick expects full-year adjusted pretax profit to be towards the upper end of market expectations after record Christmas trading.
  • FTSE Russell proposed lowering the free-float requirement for foreign companies to join the FTSE 100 index to 10% from 25%.
  • Dr Martens reported a 3.1% drop in third-quarter sales amid a challenging consumer environment.
  • Costain Group secured a GBP100 million contract to develop a new junction on the M5 motorway in the UK.
  • Sage Group backed its revenue view after reporting double-digit first-quarter growth, driven by its cloud and subscription strength.
  • M&G noted a GBP722 million exposure to ground rent assets, with potential financial impacts from proposed leasehold reforms.
  • Mitie remains on track after reporting double-digit revenue growth in the third quarter, with a record order book.
  • ASML forecasts net sales of between €34 billion and €39 billion and a gross margin of between 51% and 53% for 2026. The group is launching a share buyback program.
  • Logitech outperformed expectations in Q3 of its 2025/2026 financial year.
  • Wacker Chemie announces EBITDA of around €530 million for fiscal year 2025, before exceptional items.
  • AB Volvo reports slightly higher-than-expected operating profit in Q4.
  • BPER Banca announces that the merger by absorption of Banca Popolare di Sondrio has been approved by the European Central Bank.
  • The joint venture between Leonardo and Rheinmetall begins delivering vehicles to the Italian army.
  • ENI is negotiating a commercial partnership with Mercuria, according to Bloomberg.
  • Adecco acquires Advantis Medical Staffing to strengthen its position in the US healthcare sector.
  • Bekaert acquires Bridgestone's tire reinforcement business in China and Thailand.
  • CD Projekt announces that the game “Reigns: The Witcher” will be released on February 25.
  • Texas Instruments rises 8% in after-hours trading following its quarterly results.
  • United Parcel Service will cut up to 30,000 jobs and close sites.
  • China approves the first shipment of Nvidia's H200 AI chips for import, according to Reuters.
  • Google announces the launch of AI Plus in 35 new countries and territories, including the US.
  • C3.AI in talks to merge with startup Automation Anywhere, according to The Information.
  • SpaceX seeks to raise up to $50 billion based on a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion in an IPO in June, according to the FT.

See more news from UK listed companies here

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Melrose Industries Plc: Morgan Stanley maintains its equalwt recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 610 to GBX 680.
  • Energean Plc: Panmure Liberum maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 906 to GBX 880.
  • Astrazeneca Plc: Berenberg maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 145 to GBP 160.
  • Computacenter Plc: Peel Hunt maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 3000 to GBX 3160.
  • Rio Tinto Plc: Morgan Stanley downgrades to market weight from overweight and raises the target price from GBX 6090 to GBX 6230.
  • Glencore Plc: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 430 to GBX 570.
  • Greatland Gold: Argonaut Securities Pty Limited maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from AUD 15.30 to AUD 16.
  • Anglo American Plc: UBS maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from ZAR 82000 to ZAR 92500.
  • Gsk Plc: Zacks maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 52 to USD 53.
  • Mitie Group Plc: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 170 to GBX 190.