Key Takeaways:
- Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citi lower Brent price forecasts for 2026 and 2027.
- Goldman Sachs anticipates Gulf exports will return to pre-war levels by late July.
- Barclays maintains its $100 per barrel Brent forecast for 2026, despite the deal.

Several major investment banks have adjusted their oil price forecasts downward following the signing of a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint for global oil transit. Goldman Sachs lowered its Brent crude forecast for Q4 to $80, down from $90 previously, and reduced its average 2027 estimate from $80 to $75. The bank now expects Gulf exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July, rather than late August.

Morgan Stanley has also reduced its outlook, cutting its Q4 Brent price forecast to $80, i.e. a $15 reduction, with its Q2 forecast to $90, from a previous $100. The bank estimates that the production ramp-up will begin in mid-July, with 50% of lost production restored by September and 80% by December.

Citi has lowered its average Brent forecasts to $75 for Q3 and $70 for Q4. In contrast, Barclays maintained its $100 per barrel Brent forecast for 2026, emphasizing that the impact of reopening the Strait of Hormuz on oil market fundamentals will not be clear for several weeks and could prove more durable than expected. Barclays anticipates a slight deficit in Q3, noting that inventories are already low and are still falling.

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