Oddo BHF has reiterated its "Outperform" recommendation on bioMérieux, maintaining a target price of EUR128 following the release of the company's third-quarter results.
Revenue for the third quarter reached EUR948 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, but a 3.1% increase at constant currency. By segment, Microbiology grew by 2.2% (compared to 3.3% in the first half), Molecular Biology increased by 4% (down from 18% in H1), and Industrial Applications rose by 9.1% (versus 9.7% in the first half).
Over nine months, revenue totaled EUR2,991.9 million, up 4.2% year-on-year and 7.3% at constant currency.
bioMérieux has revised its guidance downward, now expecting organic revenue growth between 5.5% and 6.5% (previously 6% to 7.5%), with recurring operating income (ROC) projected to rise between 12% and 18% at constant currency.
Oddo BHF noted that Q3 revenue came in below expectations (consensus: EUR951-1,034 million, median EUR975 million, Oddo BHF: EUR997 million).
"The quarter is mainly characterized by (i) organic growth of 3% in Q3, less dynamic than H1 2025 (+9.4%), (ii) continued double-digit sales decline in China (around -15%), and (iii) an 8% drop in BIOFIRE® respiratory panel sales (due to low epidemiological activity)," the analyst highlighted.
According to Oddo BHF, profitability signals are positive (evidence of successful execution of the GO 2028 plan), but sales are impacted, creating short-term visibility challenges.
Stifel also maintains its "Buy" rating on the stock, with a target price of EUR25 following the group's activity update.
The analyst notes that bioMérieux reported a 3% decline in revenue.
"While this includes a 50 to 100 basis point downward revision in revenue growth and consensus estimates have been lowered by 100 basis points, the reiteration of cEBIT growth forecasts suggests EPS estimates should remain largely unchanged," Stifel stated in its report.
According to Stifel, the market may initially adopt a very cautious stance regarding seasonal trends in respiratory illnesses, and the stock could fall further than the revenue decline (about 3%).
"We believe performance will then depend on the ability to demonstrate that the integrated forecasts are conservative," Stifel added in conclusion.
Invest Securities has upgraded its recommendation on the stock to "Buy" (from "Neutral"), with a target price of EUR124. The analyst believes the valuation has become attractive again.
The analyst considers the third-quarter release to be slightly disappointing, penalized by underperformance in Molecular Diagnostics, linked to a delayed flu season.
"Conversely, the strong pace of BIOFIRE and SPOTFIRE installations is reassuring."
Invest Securities notes that the group slightly lowered its growth forecast due to delays in the flu season, while its EBITA target remains unchanged.
According to the analyst, the natural sensitivity of the business to epidemic cycles does not undermine its medium-term robustness, with 2028 targets confirmed.
"Finally, a more severe flu outbreak in the United States cannot be ruled out, given the historically low vaccination coverage," the research firm added.
