But before dragging you, for the fifth time this week, through the torments of the oil market, let us begin by wishing Alan Greenspan a happy birthday, as he turns 100 today. Greenspan's name remains well known in financial circles, since he is one of the most illustrious chairmen of the Federal Reserve. He was widely praised for his handling of the 1987 stock market crash, which occurred just after he took office, and for his ability to curb inflation. His record, however, was tarnished by the subprime crisis, which his policies helped to foster. He left the Fed in 2006, just before the disaster unfolded, making him the second longest-serving chairman in the institution's history, with a tenure of just over 19 years. You did well to come along: you will have learnt something, and not merely endured another lecture on the Strait of Hormuz, bombardments and the oil crisis.

Now, back to it, without delay. The ebb and flow of equity indices continued yesterday, with a downbeat session for Western markets. The decline reached 1.3% in Europe for the STOXX Europe 600 and 0.56% in the United States for the S&P 500. Over the week, the broad European index has fallen by more than 4%, while its American counterpart has limited its losses to 1.1%. In the current climate of anxiety, investors tend to repatriate their holdings to positions perceived as safer. Wall Street, despite doubts surrounding the policies of the Trump administration, is still regarded as less risky than Europe or Asia.

Stock markets continue to fluctuate to the sound of bombs falling in the Middle East. While the United States and Israel attempt to bring down the Iranian regime, Tehran is retaliating by striking its neighbours on multiple fronts. This chaotic situation has triggered a surge in oil prices, as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed, the maritime corridor having become too dangerous for shipping. The joint naval force tasked with securing the maritime zone near Yemen reported this morning that traffic through the strait is currently close to zero.

The rise in the price of a barrel is bad news for Western and Asian economies. It fuels inflation. It is also a major thorn in the side of the United States, where the interest rate cuts hoped for by the White House and part of the market depend on cooling price pressures. Earlier this week I wrote that Washington would probably do everything in its power to regain control over oil prices, because a sharp surge is particularly damaging in domestic politics just months before the midterm elections.

And indeed, oil prices lost some altitude last night when US authorities announced the deployment of exceptional measures, including tapping into the country's strategic reserves. Rumours are also circulating about possible Treasury supervision of futures contracts. Washington has even authorised India to receive deliveries of Russian oil, which says a great deal. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has reorganised its logistics to strengthen crude supply to its Red Sea terminals, thereby bypassing the Hormuz bottleneck. These announcements helped bring Brent back to around USD 83 overnight, but the barrel has since rebounded to USD 84.72. In other words, attempts to push oil prices lower are not working at this stage, at least as long as Iran retains the ability to strike facilities and logistics routes across the Middle East.

In the field of artificial intelligence, the theme that fuelled the rise in equities until recently, confusion still reigns. The results published last night by semiconductor group Marvell have sent its shares up 15% in after-hours trading, and investment commitments in large language models show no sign of weakening. Yet US authorities are reportedly considering unprecedented controls on AI chips, requiring government approval for any sale of advanced semiconductors abroad. Meanwhile, Oracle could cut several thousand jobs, the company employs more than 160,000 people, because of changes linked to AI. The doubts surrounding this formidable investment opportunity have deprived the markets of their most powerful performance driver of the past three years.

It is in this explosive context that markets are awaiting the publication of the February US employment report early afternoon. Economists believe the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3%, but expect a marked slowdown in job creation. It is nonetheless difficult to say what outcome would satisfy investors, given the complexity of the geopolitical backdrop. Weak figures could revive hopes of interest rate cuts. But they could also revive the spectre of stagflation.

The week is not ending too badly in Asia-Pacific. Volatility has eased after two sessions that swung wildly in all directions. Tokyo is up 0.6% and Hong Kong 1.4%. Seoul is edging up 0.1%. India is down 0.6%. Australia is suffering the most this morning, down 1%, as China has put pressure on its state-owned enterprises, urging their traders to avoid BHP cargoes amid a trade dispute. Western leading indicators point to a rebound this morning, but the trend remains fragile.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: the Halifax House Price Index in the United Kingdom; factory orders in Germany; ECB President Lagarde's speech in the Euro Area; In the United States, non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings, unemployment rate, participation rate, retail sales, and business inventories; the Ivey PMI in Canada; Fed Hammack's speech in the United States and RBA Hauser's speech in Australia. See the full calendar here.

  • GBP / USD: US$1.34
  • Gold: US$5,117.62
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): US$85.24
  • United States 10 years: 4.14%
  • BITCOIN: US$70,490

In corporate news:

  • Lloyds Banking Group plans to cut IT costs by automating governance controls and aims to save hundreds of millions of pounds annually through 2028.
  • Senior plc rejected a takeover offer from Advent International, which is now considering its next steps.
  • Shell signed agreements with Venezuela for offshore natural gas and onshore oil projects, including the long-stalled Dragon gas project.
  • Glencore is offering to support Shakhmurat Mutalile in his $1.4 billion takeover of 40% of Eurasian Resources Group, according to the FT.
  • PageGroup reported a 68% drop in 2025 pretax profit and halved its dividend due to market uncertainty.
  • Reckitt Benckiser reported in-line 2025 results but warned of near-term margin pressures and a challenging trading environment in Europe.
  • Funding Circle posted a sharp rise in 2025 profit and revenue, upgrading its 2026 guidance.
  • Ibstock reported a significant drop in 2025 profit despite revenue growth, citing rising costs and market uncertainty.
  • Grafton Group increased its dividend, launched a new buyback program, and reported higher 2025 profit and revenue.
  • Elementis reported a 21% rise in 2025 profit, increased its dividend, and announced the sale of its pharmaceutical unit to AB Foods.
  • Irish Continental reported a 25% rise in 2025 pretax profit and a 10% increase in revenue, supported by strong demand in its divisions.
  • Universal Music suspends its plans to go public in the United States due to market uncertainty.
  • Roche and Zealand's anti-obesity drug shows up to 10.7% weight loss in a Phase II trial.
  • Eni confirms an agreement with Nigeria to divide the OPL 245 oil field into four licenses.
  • Uniper says it is constantly working to diversify its energy supplies and considers Canada to be an interesting prospect.
  • BMW adopts smart car technology from Japanese company NTT Docomo, according to Nikkei.
  • Advent is considering its options after its takeover bid was rejected by Senior plc.
  • Marvell drops 15% in after-hours trading following its quarterly results.
  • Oracle is reportedly planning thousands of job cuts due to financial pressure from AI, according to Bloomberg.
  • The FDA approves Johnson & Johnson's blood cancer drug.
  • Nike will take $300 million in restructuring charges.
  • Intercontinental Exchange invests approximately $200 million in OKX.

See more news from UK listed companies here

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Serco Group Plc: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 245 to GBX 255.
  • Admiral Group Plc: Berenberg maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 3750 to GBX 3800.
  • Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Plc: Goldman Sachs maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 60 to GBX 50.
  • Unite Group Plc: Peel Hunt downgrades to hold from add and reduces the target price from GBP 6.50 to GBP 5.40.
  • Lancashire Holdings Limited: RBC Capital maintains its underperform recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 625 to GBX 590.
  • Mondi Plc: Morgan Stanley maintains its underweight recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 780 to GBX 760.
  • Itv Plc: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 0.84 to GBP 0.85.
  • Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc: UBS maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 7800 to GBX 7400.
  • Astrazeneca Plc: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 15000 to GBX 18000.
  • Flutter Entertainment Plc: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 380 to USD 210.
  • Sage Group Plc: UBS maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 1425 to GBX 1025.