The three main American stock indexes are heading for their worst week in months. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is suffering most, down almost 2% in a single day and set for its biggest weekly fall since March. Investors are suddenly wondering whether the AI-fuelled boom has more smoke than silicon. Concerns about how exactly firms will make money from the technology, and whether much of the "AI economy" is just companies selling chips and cloud services to one another, have punctured some of the hype.

Adding to the gloom is the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, which has left economists and policymakers operating without official data and without a reliable compass, investors have grown jumpy. The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street's so-called "fear gauge", has reached a two-week high, and traders are pricing in roughly even odds that the Fed will cut interest rates next month. The uncertainty has been worsened by the shutdown's knock-on effects: flight traffic is being reduced at 40 airports.

Earnings season, meanwhile, has offered both hope and heartbreak. Of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, a striking 83% have beaten Wall Street's expectations, the highest rate in over two years. Yet the market's mood remains sour. Some firms, like Expedia and Monster Beverage, delivered strong results and were rewarded handsomely. Others, such as Block (the owner of Cash App and Square), saw their shares plunge after missing forecasts. Even Tesla, whose shareholders approved a record-breaking $1 trillion pay package for Elon Musk, could not escape the sense of unease. It's shares fell 1% in premarket trading after a 3.50% plunge yesterday.

Elsewhere China's exports unexpectedly fell in October, with shipments to the United States down a staggering 25% from a year earlier. The decline hints at both cooling global demand and persistent trade friction. Commodity markets tell a similar tale of unease. Oil prices are sliding, gold is inching higher, and iron ore is sagging under the weight of global oversupply.

Today, earnings reports include KKR, Duke Energy and Constellation Software.

In Asia-Pacific, the end-of-week surge did not materialise. Japan lost 1.2% and South Korea 1.8%. These two technology-rich markets are experiencing the same sell-offs as the Nasdaq. Hong Kong and mainland China are also trading in the red. China's import-export data for October was disappointing, although economists attribute this to a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the compromise reached between Trump and Xi at the end of October on trade between the two countries. In Australia, the ASX hit a one-and-a-half-month low after a second negative weekly performance. Europe is still bearish and so are futures on Wall Street.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: the current account balance, trade balance, and wages in France; household spending in Japan; in Canada, the hourly wage rate for permanent employees year-over-year; in the United States, non-farm employment change, unemployment rate, and University of Michigan sentiment. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99,462
  • Gold: $3,998
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $63.75 (WTI) $59.83
  • United States 10 years: 4.1%
  • BITCOIN: $100,473

In corporate news:

  • Comcast is expanding its streaming presence in the UK by acquiring ITV's broadcasting division and is also reportedly exploring an acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery.
  • Oxbridge Re reported a reduced net loss in Q3 due to decreased unrealized losses on investments.
  • Nvidia adjusted its strategy in China by excluding the country's datacenter market from financial forecasts and confirmed no plans to sell its Blackwell AI chips to China due to U.S. export restrictions.
  • Boeing secured new aircraft orders and introduced virtual airplane technology for pilot training; it also avoided criminal prosecution in the 737 MAX case and signed deals to sell up to 37 jets to Central Asian airlines.
  • Tesla shareholders approved Elon Musk's $1 trillion stock compensation package and backed investment in his AI startup xAI, while Musk hinted at building a large chip fab and seeks approval for Full Self-Driving in China by 2026.
  • Airbnb exceeded Q3 2025 earnings expectations with strong international growth, especially in Latin America and Asia Pacific.
  • Federal Reserve officials relied on alternative data from firms like Indeed, Revelio Labs, and AI analytics during the October data shutdown to guide economic decisions.
  • U.S. Department of Defense will overhaul its weapons acquisition system to speed up tech procurement, involving firms like Palantir Technologies, RTX, and Lockheed Martin.
  • Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly will reduce GLP-1 drug prices under a Trump administration deal, increasing Medicare access, though concerns linger over affordability for sustained use.
  • ITV is also in talks to sell its media and entertainment unit to Sky, owned by Comcast, for £1.6 billion, while Singtel restructures assets and considers co-buying ST Telemedia with KKR.
  • Venture Global signed a long-term LNG supply agreement with Greece to deliver 0.7 billion cubic meters annually from 2030.
  • La Poste's logistics deal with Temu, owned by PDD Holdings, drew criticism in France over its support for environmentally and industrially contentious practices.
  • Eli Lilly's drug Mounjaro overtook GSK's Augmentin as India's top-selling drug by value in October amid growing demand for weight-loss treatments.
  • Freeport-McMoRan resumed operations at unaffected Indonesian mines and plans to gradually reopen Grasberg Block Cave by 2026 after a fatal mudslide.
  • Taiwan posted a record 49.7% export surge in October driven by AI chip demand, benefiting major suppliers like TSMC.
  • Hungary will buy U.S. nuclear fuel and spent fuel storage tech for its Russian-built Paks plant, signaling deeper U.S.–Hungary energy cooperation.
  • Anthropic, backed by Alphabet and Amazon, is expanding in Europe with new offices in Paris and Munich amid growing demand for its Claude AI models.
  • Google plans to build an AI-focused data center on Australia's Christmas Island as part of defense-aligned infrastructure investments.
  • European Commission is facing pressure from Meta, Alphabet, and the Trump administration to delay parts of the AI Act, despite initial commitments.
  • Trump hosted Central Asian leaders to announce energy and aviation deals, including $100 billion in investment pledges and critical mineral partnerships.
  • Goldman Sachs will promote 638 employees to managing director in 2026, its highest class since 2021, as investment banking rebounds.
  • OpenAI clarified it has not requested U.S. government guarantees for data center financing, instead focusing on domestic chip manufacturing support.
  • Delta Air Lines is scaling back flights at 40 U.S. airports to comply with FAA staffing constraints amid the ongoing government shutdown.
  • Alliant Energy raised its 2025 capex forecast by 17% to $13.4 billion due to increasing demand from data centers.
  • Camden Property Trust raised its full-year funds from operations outlook, citing persistent rent growth.
  • Block missed Q3 profit expectations as consumer spending cooled and Square's growth slowed, triggering an 11% stock drop.
  • Expedia beat Q3 profit forecasts and raised its 2025 revenue guidance, driven by strong business and Asian travel momentum.
  • Wynn Resorts exceeded Q3 revenue estimates thanks to a rebound in Macau, despite falling short on profits.
  • Johnson & Johnson received FDA approval for Darzalex Faspro®, the first treatment for high-risk smoldering multiple myeloma.
  • Alphabet closed $24 billion in senior notes offerings, boosting its liquidity.
  • Snap-On raised its dividend by 14%, reflecting robust financial performance.
  • At Brazil's climate summit, world leaders pledged billions for forest protection and criticized the U.S. absence ahead of COP30.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Amd (Advanced Micro Devices): CICC upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from USD 166 to USD 265.
  • Americold Realty Trust, Inc.: RBC Capital downgrades to sector perform from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 17 to USD 13.
  • Black Hills Corporation: Scotiabank upgrades to sector outperform from sector perform and raises the target price from USD 66 to USD 81.
  • Carmax, Inc.: RBC Capital downgrades to sector perform from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 59 to USD 34.
  • Datadog, Inc.: KeyBanc Capital Markets upgrades to overweight from market weight with a target price of USD 230.
  • Dentsply Sirona Inc.: William Blair downgrades to market perform from outperform.
  • Expedia Group, Inc.: Piper Sandler & Co upgrades to neutral from underweight with a price target raised from USD 190 to USD 250.
  • Globus Medical, Inc.: Truist Securities upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from USD 65 to USD 93.
  • Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc.: Compass Point Research & Trading upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 18 to USD 22.
  • Parker-Hannifin Corporation: Stifel upgrades to hold from neutral and raises the target price from USD 723 to USD 850.
  • The Middleby Corporation: JP Morgan upgrades to neutral from underweight and reduces the target price from USD 140 to USD 125.
  • Astera Labs, Inc.: CITIC Securities Co Ltd maintains its add recommendation and raises the target price from USD 153 to USD 202.
  • Bunge Global Sa: CICC maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 90 to USD 110.
  • DuPont De Nemours: Citi maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 38.90 to USD 47.
  • Hubspot, Inc.: Cantor Fitzgerald maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 775 to USD 500.
  • Instacart (Maplebear): Bernstein maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 63 to USD 45.
  • Macom Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 150 to USD 200.
  • Natera, Inc.: Canaccord Genuity maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 200 to USD 250.
  • Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 33 to USD 26.
  • Primo Brands Corporation: JP Morgan maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 35 to USD 23.
  • Sandisk Corporation: BNP Paribas maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 130 to USD 230.
  • Shift4 Payments, Inc.: RBC Capital maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 127 to USD 96.
  • Strategy Incorporated: President Capital Management Corp maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 389 to USD 309.
  • Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.: Bernstein maintains its market perform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 16 to USD 23.50.