The French pharmaceutical giant announced that its drug candidate Lunsekimig met its primary and key secondary endpoints in Phase 2 respiratory trials for asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps.

In the Aircules study, Sanofi's product demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful reduction in exacerbations and an improvement in lung function, as measured by standard respiratory testing. The trial enrolled adult patients with moderate-to-severe asthma.

In the second study, dubbed Duet, Lunsekimig met its primary endpoint of change from baseline in nasal polyp score. It also achieved its key secondary endpoints, including patient-reported nasal congestion/obstruction scores and changes in the Lund-Mackay CT score (the most widely used radiological classification system for assessing the severity of chronic rhinosinusitis via sinus CT scan).

Conversely, in a third study (Velvet) focusing on moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis, the product failed to meet its primary endpoint of percentage change from baseline in the Eczema Area and Severity Index score. However, improvements were observed in key secondary endpoints.

AlphaValue lowers price target

Despite these broadly encouraging data points, AlphaValue maintained its Buy recommendation but lowered its price target from 112 to 105 euros. Analysts believe that while Sanofi could continue to grow at a steady pace in the medium term, the group faces significant challenges in filling the revenue gap that the loss of exclusivity for its flagship immunology drug, Dupixent (approximately 36% of sales), could create starting in 2031.

AlphaValue added that the concerns regarding the Dupixent patent cliff are further amplified following disappointing late-stage results for Amlitelimab in eczema, setbacks encountered by Tolebrutinib in multiple sclerosis, and uncertainties surrounding the multi-blockbuster E. coli vaccine candidate.

Consequently, the research firm has lowered its long-term growth forecast for Sanofi to 0.5%, down from 1.5% previously.

For the share price to experience a significant recovery, clear evidence of long-term growth prospects will be required. This could stem from either a series of positive R&D breakthroughs, the acquisition of a promising asset, or both.