The war waged by the American-Israeli coalition against the Iranian regime is affecting airlines far beyond mere fuel price fluctuations. In addition to the cancellation of certain flights, carriers are also being forced to alter their flight plans to avoid combat zones, which weighs on their fuel consumption.

"As a result, long-haul airlines are experiencing stronger pressure on their shares compared to their short-haul competitors," says Yi Zhong, aviation specialist at AlphaValue. In this regard, the expert points out that TUI, whose fleet is mainly dedicated to short- and medium-haul flights, should not be overlooked, and notes that while Wizz Air’s situation is critical, "by a stroke of luck, its earlier decision to abandon its Abu Dhabi base now makes its situation less desperate."

It should be noted that jet fuel typically represents between 25% and 30% of airlines' operating costs. And with Brent crude up 9% this morning, nearing 80 USD per barrel, airlines are being immediately penalized with drops of -7% for Air France and TUI, -6% for Lufthansa, -6% for Wizz Air, and -3.5% for EasyJet and Ryanair.

At Jefferies, it is estimated that every 5% change in the average fuel price in 2026 translates into a 5% to 10% impact on earnings per share (EPS) for Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, and even close to 35% for American Airlines.

However, the analyst notes that for American Airlines, Air Canada, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, and United Airlines, direct operational exposure remains limited. Air Canada (AC) shows the highest exposure with only 1.1% of its total capacity in the region and less than 1% for the other airlines.

During the presentation of its annual results, Air France-KLM had already mentioned the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The company indicated that geopolitical circumstances had forced some Group airlines to extend certain flight times, resulting in higher fuel consumption and slowing progress in improving greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity.

The low-cost subsidiary Transavia, for instance, had to face increased competition, partly resulting from a reallocation to Europe of capacities initially planned for the Middle East. For the whole of 2025, the Air France-KLM Group’s capacity (Available Seat Kilometers - ASK) in this area remained almost stable (+0.8%), while the load factor stood at 88.1% (+0.2 pt).

While Iran is said to hold the world’s 4th largest oil reserves by volume, its oil production is extremely limited. Earlier this year, Frédérik Ducrozet (Pictet) mentioned production on the order of 500,000 barrels per day, "not really a game changer," he emphasized. Thus, it is more the geopolitical pressures, regional instability, and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz that are weighing on oil prices.

"A scenario of an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is becoming increasingly credible, with ships already blocked, attacks, and the withdrawal of maritime insurers," says Frédéric Lorec, analyst at AlphaValue. According to him, in the long term, Brent could exceed 100 USD, or even enter a range above 130 USD if the disruption persists.

Towards a Conflict Lasting a Few Weeks, According to Commerzbank

 In June 2025, during the "Twelve-Day War" between Israel and Iran, oil prices surged 15% before quickly returning to their pre-conflict levels once hostilities ended. "Oil should follow the same pattern this time as well," says Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM.

At Commerzbank, expectations are also for a short conflict, lasting a few weeks. This analysis is based in particular on internal political constraints in the United States, with midterm elections approaching, as well as the limited interest of the Iranian regime in engaging in a prolonged war that could threaten its survival.

In response to soaring prices, eight OPEC+ countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman) decided yesterday to begin gradually lifting the voluntary production cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023. They will implement a production increase of 206,000 barrels per day starting April 2026, considering that market fundamentals are solid and inventories are low. However, these measures will have "a limited effect," according to Frédéric Lorec.