USA: A "Mixed" Jobs Report

On Wall Street, markets followed the same upward trend this Friday after the release of the US employment report for December 2025. The Dow Jones was up 0.37% at around 5:45 p.m.

The report painted a mixed picture. It revealed the creation of 50,000 jobs last month—a figure below the consensus estimate (60,000) and November's tally (56,000).

On the positive side, the most notable aspect of the report was a drop in unemployment. Expected to remain stable at 4.5%, the rate actually fell by 0.1 percentage point to settle at 4.4%. This decline suggests that, despite a slower hiring pace, the labor market is not collapsing and remains resilient.

Meanwhile, average hourly earnings in December rose by 0.3%, in line with expectations, bringing the year-on-year increase to 3.8%, compared to the anticipated 3.6%.

Closely watched by the Federal Reserve, these figures are crucial for anticipating the US central bank's next moves on interest rates.

"We expect the Fed to remain flexible, refocusing its attention on inflation and monitoring its evolution before making any further rate adjustments. The probability of a rate cut in January is now virtually nil. In light of these data, any rate cut discussed by the Fed's more dovish members will likely be presented as a preemptive measure," said Christophe Boucher, Chief Investment Officer at ABN Amro Investment Solutions, regarding the December US labor market figures.

Dynamic Session for L'Oréal and Glencore

In Paris, during Friday's session, L'Oréal propelled the CAC 40 higher with a spectacular surge of nearly 6% after a recommendation upgrade by UBS. The Swiss bank raised its outlook from Neutral to Buy on the world's leading cosmetics company, while also increasing its price target from 367 to 430 euros. This in turn boosted Hermès (+3.74%) and Kering (+2.45%).

Meanwhile, in London, the FTSE 100 climbed 0.83% thanks to Glencore. The Anglo-Swiss commodity trading, brokerage, and mining giant led the index, jumping nearly 9% after confirming preliminary talks with Rio Tinto regarding a potential merger of the two mining heavyweights via a share swap.

Elsewhere in the United States, the week was dominated by new statements from Donald Trump on his Truth Social network regarding the increased military budget. The American president wants to set the US defense budget for fiscal year 2027 at USD 1.5 trillion. This amount would approach the 5% threshold of the country's GDP and represent a 50% increase compared to the 2026 budget (around USD 900 billion to USD 1 trillion).

This announcement came just days after the US military operation in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

In an interview with The New York Times published yesterday, Donald Trump warned that US oversight of Venezuela could last for years, and that he intends to manage the revenues from oil produced in the country.

On the subject of oil, the White House occupant confirmed Tuesday an agreement for the export of USD 2 billion worth of Venezuelan oil to the United States. "I am pleased to announce that the interim authorities of Venezuela will deliver to the United States between 30 and 50 million barrels of sanctioned, high-quality oil. This oil will be sold at market price, and the money will be controlled by me to ensure it is used for the benefit of the peoples of Venezuela and the United States," he stated.

Next week will be marked by the start of the fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season. US banks will kick things off: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo.

US inflation data for December will also be a major highlight, scheduled for release at 2:30 p.m. on Tuesday. This publication will be the ultimate test for investors, determining the Fed's rate trajectory for early 2026.