Trump's speech caused a broad relief rally: stocks climbed in the United States, Asia bounced back sharply, while Europe is well on its way to recover some lost ground, Treasury yields eased, the dollar slipped, and travel stocks found some room to breathe. This morning, futures remained flat.

But this episode is not really a story about calming markets, but about how fragile the modern global economy remains when energy, shipping, and geopolitics collide - and how quickly investors will embrace even a partial excuse to stop panicking. That reflex is understandable, since the alternative is uglier. The conflict had already sent crude surging, revived fears of stagflation, and complicated the Federal Reserve's job just as the labor market was beginning to show signs of weakness. Traders have started to price in the possibility of a quarter-point Fed rate cut around September, but the central problem has not changed: a central bank can do little about missiles, blockades, or the Strait of Hormuz.

This is why the market's relief should not be confused with resolution. Iran has said it will continue its oil blockade, Trump has threatened stronger military retaliation, Middle Eastern producers have not fully resumed output, and shipping costs are still likely to remain elevated.

Technology firms, especially the big AI names and semiconductor companies, again acted as America's emotional support sector. Nvidia ticked higher. SanDisk and Western Digital jumped. Hewlett Packard Enterprise rose after giving a strong revenue forecast tied to AI and data-center demand. Other winners were easier to explain. Airlines such as American and Delta rose as oil retreated. Cruise operators recovered as the immediate fear of an energy-driven squeeze eased. Defensive healthcare shares attracted buyers. Energy producers, by contrast, fell back as crude gave up some of its gains. Industrials and financials were less enthusiastic.

Investors are not really making a broad bet on stability. They are hiding in pockets of growth, grabbing tactical rebounds where they can, and avoiding any grand declaration that the danger has passed. Gold rose even as stocks rallied. The VIX fell, but remained in a range that still signals real stress.

The underlying uncertainty remains enormous. Some analysts think the conflict will prove short-lived, perhaps a matter of weeks, allowing oil to fall back sharply - maybe even toward $65 a barrel. Others warn that if Gulf and Iranian energy infrastructure suffer severe damage, Brent could average $150 over the next six months.

This latest episode also reveals something awkward about Trump's position. He has clearly shown that his words can move markets. In the short term, that is power. But it is also a trap. The more he tries to calm investors through force of assertion - saying the war is nearly over, saying Hormuz will soon be secured, saying sanctions will be relaxed to increase supply - the more he ties confidence to his own credibility. If oil flows normalize quickly, he looks decisive. If they do not, the gap between rhetoric and reality becomes its own source of instability.

Saudi Aramco says its Ras Tanura refinery is restarting after a drone attack and that production areas are safe. That is encouraging. But one refinery restart is not the same as regional security. Russia sanctions relief, even if pursued, may not add much supply because Moscow has already learned how to operate around restrictions. China's exports have surged, which may bolster global demand, but stronger demand in an energy-constrained world is hardly a soothing thought. 

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: the BRC Retail Sales Monitor in the United Kingdom; NAB Business Confidence in Australia; balance of trade, imports, and exports in China; exports and balance of trade in Germany; balance of trade in France; in the United States, existing home sales and API crude oil stock change. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 98.804
  • Gold: $5,179
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $91.74 (WTI) $88.56
  • United States 10 years: 4.11%
  • BITCOIN: $70,750

In corporate news:

  • AT&T will invest more than $250 billion in U.S. telecom infrastructure through 2030 to expand fiber, 5G, satellite connectivity and FirstNet, while hiring and training more technicians.
  • BioNTech co-founders Ugur Sahin and Özlem Türeci are reportedly leaving the company to launch a new mRNA venture.
  • TransUnion is targeting mid-term high-single-digit annual organic constant-currency revenue growth and low-to-mid teens adjusted diluted EPS growth, while reaffirming its 2026 guidance.
  • Exxon Mobil is seeking shareholder approval to redomicile from New Jersey to Texas, a move aimed at aligning its legal home with its headquarters and benefiting from Texas's more business-friendly environment.
  • Domino's Pizza Group reported lower annual profit despite higher revenue, but said 2026 trading is in line with expectations as it pushes loyalty and product initiatives.
  • Centene reaffirmed 2026 guidance for GAAP diluted EPS above $1.98 and adjusted EPS above $3.00, and said it will redeem $1 billion of notes due 2027 this month.
  • Elevance Health reaffirmed fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of at least $25.50 per diluted share, including the potential impact of CMS sanctions if imposed.
  • Meta's Oversight Board urged the company to strengthen labeling and rules for AI-generated content after reviewing misleading war-related posts.
  • Nextdoor launched AI-based ad optimization tools in the UK and a pilot using OpenAI technology to help marketers create copy and images.
  • Texas Instruments introduced two new microcontrollers with edge AI capabilities, with one already available and more variants planned by year-end.
  • Amazon has reportedly scheduled an engineering meeting after a series of outages, including incidents linked to AI coding tools.
  • Blackstone-owned AirTrunk secured a $1.24 billion green loan to refinance and expand its Tokyo hyperscale data center campus.
  • Apple now reportedly makes about 25% of its iPhones in India after sharply increasing production there last year.
  • Apollo Global Management plans to launch its first UK long-term asset fund, giving defined-contribution pension schemes access to a diversified private credit portfolio.
  • Anthropic said a Pentagon blacklist threatens billions in revenue and has already cost it customers, according to court filings.
  • Nvidia is reportedly preparing an open-source AI agent platform for enterprises that would let businesses deploy task-performing AI agents.
  • Carlyle-backed Quest Global is exploring a Mumbai IPO that could raise up to $1 billion.
  • Ford is recalling 35,772 U.S. vehicles over a passenger-side headlight malfunction and 47,804 more over a potential loss of drive power.
  • Goldman Sachs is reportedly offering hedge funds derivatives tied to corporate loans, enabling long or short exposure to the debt.
  • Synopsys launched an electronics digital twin platform to support software-defined product development through cloud-based virtual labs.
  • Live Nation Entertainment reportedly reached a settlement with the U.S. Justice Department in its antitrust case, potentially avoiding a breakup.
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise raised its earnings outlook and said it expects the memory shortage to persist as AI-driven demand boosts networking revenue.
  • Shell agreed to sell Jiffy Lube to Monomoy for $1.3 billion as it reshapes its U.S. lubricants portfolio.
  • Amazon's Zoox is now testing robotaxi operations in 10 U.S. cities, stepping up competition with Waymo and Tesla.
  • Archer Aviation sued Joby Aviation, accusing its rival of understating its reliance on China.
  • Sturm Ruger accused Beretta of trying to gain control of the company after Beretta built a near-10% stake and nominated directors.
  • Simon & Schuster named former Amazon executive Jeff Greeley as CEO.
  • Novo Nordisk will sell weight-loss drugs through Hims & Hers, ending their legal dispute and widening distribution.
  • Advanced Machine Intelligence, founded by former Meta AI chief Yann LeCun, raised $1.03 billion to develop AI systems focused on reasoning, planning and world models.
  • Oracle says its flagship Abilene site is on schedule, with 200 MW already operational.
  • Vertex achieves positive Phase III results for its treatment for nephropathy.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • AT&T Inc.: Arete Research upgrades to neutral from sell with a price target raised from USD 20 to USD 28.
  • Brunswick Corporation: Texas Capital upgrades to buy from hold with a target price of USD 91.
  • Crowdstrike Holdings, Inc.: Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from market weight with a price target raised from USD 487 to USD 510.
  • Intuit Inc.: Rothschild & Co Redburn upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price of USD 670.
  • Paypal Holdings, Inc.: President Capital Management Corp downgrades to neutral from buy and reduces the target price from USD 80 to USD 52.
  • Affirm Holdings, Inc.: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 107 to USD 85.
  • Bloom Energy Corporation: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its sell recommendation and raises the target price from USD 40 to USD 55.
  • Ccc Intelligent Solutions Holdings: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 13 to USD 9.
  • Fedex Corporation: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 294 to USD 424.
  • Gitlab Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its equalwt recommendation and reduces the target price from 38 to USD 29.
  • Micron Technology, Inc.: GF Securities Co. Ltd. maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 323 to USD 571.
  • Nextpower Inc.: Haitong International Research Ltd maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 141 to USD 69.
  • Veeva Systems Inc.: CITIC Securities Co Ltd maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 329 to USD 248.