Thai Oil Public Company Limited
Q1/24 Analyst Presentation
17 May 2024
Time : 10:00 - 12:00 hrs.
2
Disclaimer
The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it.
Some statements made in this material are forward-looking with relevant assumptions, which are subject to uncertainties, which may cause the actual result/performance to be materially deviated from any future result/performance implied by such forward-looking statements. Please note that the company and management/staff are not capable to control and guarantee if these forward-looking statements will be accurately materialized, they are subject to various risks and uncertainties.
Presentation Agenda
Q1/24
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
OUTLOOK
FINAL REMARK
3
Key Market Highlight
Higher GRM/GIM due to Tight Product Supply from Refinery Outages
4
Key Highlights | Performance | Outlook | Final Remark | |
Key Market Highlight | Key Performance Highlights | Key Business Highlights | CFP Progress | ESG & Recognitions |
Key Market Factors
Impact to Oil Prices & Refining Margin
Global Oil Demand Growth
Rising Jet demand to support demand growth
Tighter Crude Supply from OPEC+ Cut Extension
OPEC+ extended the additional voluntary cuts through Q2'24 and possible extension at least Q3'24
Dubai Price ($/BBL)
Softening crude oil price due to concern on economic slowdown, coupled with higher supply from non-OPEC (US, Canada and Guyana)
110%
100%
90%
80%
Pre-COVID level (2019)
MBD | MBD |
106 | 4.0 |
104 | 3.0 |
102 | 2.0 |
Q1'24 81.2
$(2.3)/BBL (QoQ) |
Q2TD : $88.7/BBL
70% | Total oil demand | ||||||||||||
60% | growth 1.7%* | ||||||||||||
Gasoline 0.8% | |||||||||||||
50% | |||||||||||||
Gasoil 1.0% | |||||||||||||
40% | Jet 8.1% | ||||||||||||
(*2024 vs 2023) | |||||||||||||
30% | |||||||||||||
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||||||
Gasoline | Gasoil | Jet | |||||||||||
Source : EA(Apr'24) | |||||||||||||
100 | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(1.0) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
96 | (2.0) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
94 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(3.0) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
92 | (4.0) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
2021 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Demand | Supply | Stock Build | Stock Draw | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
(RHS) | (RHS) |
Source : EIA (May'24)
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
Murban OSP ($/BBL)
Lower crude OSP premium due to higher ME crude supply from ME refinery maintenance
Tight Product Supply in Q1 from Lower Run | |
Due to unplanned refinery outages in Asia, US (Cold | |
90 | snap) and Russia (Drone attacks) |
Global Refinery Run (MBD) | |
85 | |
80 |
75
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun | Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec | |||||
2015-2019 Range | 2022 | |||||
2023 | 2024 | |||||
Avg 2015-2019 |
Source : EA (Apr'24)
The Elevated Geopolitical Backdrop
will be the upside risk for crude oil price and product cracks
Russia-Ukraine
Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian energy infrastructure
Middle East Conflicts
Iran-Isarael,Isarael-Hamas
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
SG GRM ($/BBL)
Increasing margins due to tight product supply from refinery outages
Q1'24 7.3 | |||||
$1.8/BBL (QoQ) | |||||
Q2TD : $4.5/BBL | |||||
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
Q1TD as of 3 Mar 2024 |
Key Performance Highlight
Higher GIM Owing to Improving Refining Margins and Aromatic Contributions
5
Key Highlights | Performance | Outlook | Final Remark | |
Key Market Highlight | Key Performance Highlights | Key Business Highlights | CFP Progress | ESG & Recognitions |
Refinery | Aromatic & LAB | Lube |
Contribution ($/bbl)
Murban OSP | Crude Price | |
5.00 | 3.30 | 1.10 |
Dubai Price | ||
80.20 | 83.80 | 81.20 |
9.0 $/bbl | 1.1 $/bbl | 0.4 $/bbl |
QoQ 1.8 $/bbl | QoQ 0.1 $/bbl | QoQ 0.1 $/bbl |
- Lower crude oil price owing to concerns on global economic slowdown, coupled with higher supply from Non- OPEC including US, Canada and Guyana
- Higher gasoline spread supported by lower supply from US refinery shutdown due to cold snap
- Softer middle distillate cracks from higher supply in region after arbitrage flow from Asia to EU was uneconomical due to high freight cost. Besides, demand for heating oil reduced after EU switched to use cheaper gas
- Increasing HSFO spread driven by higher bunker demand and lower supply from OPEC+ cut
- Lower crude premium due to higher ME crude supply from ME refinery maintenance
- Slightly softer PX margin from concerns over global economic slowdown and persistent low PTA margin
- Higher BZ margin from tight BZ supply after BZ producers shut their production due to cold snap and persistent low BZ inventory in China
- Lower LAB contribution from concerns over economic slowdown, higher supply after LAB producer in India restart its production after finished maintenance, and high BZ price
- Increasing Base Oil margin due to limited supply from lower export from Japan and plant maintenance in Asia
- Softer Bitumen spread from higher HSFO price and softer demand from limited on-going road projects and funding
Q1/23 Q4/23 Q1/24
10.0 | Market GRM | 9.0 |
7.2 | ||
Stock G/(L)
(3.5) | (5.0) | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||||
Q1/23 | Q4/23 | Q1/24 | |||||||||||||||||
GIM | |||||||||||||||||||
Mkt | 11.8 | 8.6 | 10.4 | ||||||||||||||||
Acc | 8.3 | 3.6 | 10.5 | ||||||||||||||||
0.4 | |||||||||||||||||||
1.1 | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||
0.9 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||
6.4 | 8.9 | ||||||||||||||||||
1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||
Q1/23 | Q4/23 | Q1/24 | |||||||||||||||||
Refinery | Aromatic & LAB | Lube | |||||||||||||||||
Key Business Highlight
Low Refinery Utilization due to CDU-3 Unplanned Shutdown
Key Highlights | Performance | Outlook |
Key Market Highlight | Key Performance Highlights | Key Business Highlights |
Operational | Commercial |
6
Final Remark | |
CFP Progress | ESG & Recognitions |
Financial
High and Reliable Refinery Production
Crude Optimization
Continuously Enhanced Cost Management
U-Rate % | Q1/23 | Q4/23 | Q1/24 |
Refinery | 112% | 111% | 105% (1) |
Aromatics | 67% | 79% | 76% |
LAB | 121% | 123% | 120% |
Base Oil | 79% | 76% | 70% |
1%
7%
92%
6%
94%
1%
5%
94%
Others i.e. WAF, US
Far East
Local
Middle
East
Operating Cost
Interest Expense
2.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | ||
2.4 | ||||
0.9 | 0.7 | |||
0.7 | 0.7 | |||
1.9 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.7 | |
FY/22 | FY/23 | Q1/23 | Q1/24 | |
Successful Repurchased USD Bond 120 MUSD
- CDU-3unplanned shutdown in Jan'24
Optimized Production
Q1/23 | Q4/23 | Q1/24 |
Capture High Local & Indochina Sales
(Mar-Apr'24)
Repurchased Amount
120 MUSD (2)
Booked extra gain in Q1/24
18%18%
16%16%
39%37%
18%
18%
37%
GASOLINE
JET
DIESEL
Q1/23 | Q4/23 | Q1/24 | |
Local | 87% | 84% | 87% |
Indochina | 10% | 13% | 10% |
Other exports | 3% | 3% | 3% |
232 MB (3)
Note: (2) A portion of US$600 million Debentures due in 2050. Repurchased amount in Q1 and Q2 was 24.6 and 95.4 MUSD, respectively, Therefore, the debentures outstanding due in 2050 was US$480 million
- Extra gain to be booked in Q1/24 and Q2/24
S&P revised up standalone to "BB-"(Apr'24)
Q1/23 | Q4/23 | Q1/24 |
S&P Global Ratings affirmed 'BBB' Rating With
Stable Outlook; SACP Revised Up To 'BB-' from "B+"
Key Progress on Clean Fuel Project (CFP) | 7 | ||||
Key Highlights | Performance | Outlook | Final Remark | ||
Key Market Highlight | Key Performance Highlights | Key Business Highlights | CFP Progress | ESG & Recognitions | |
Capacity Growth | Upgrading Product Mix |
Unit : % vol by grade |
Key Progress (Commercial)
• Collaborate with PTT Group to secure heavy crude purchase |
400 KBD
(+40%)
275 KBD
25% | Light | |
Distillate | ||
23% | 62% | Middle |
53% | Distillate | |
17% | (Diesel/Jet) | |
13% | Other | |
7% | 0% | Fuel Oil |
and gain experience on heavy crude trading activity |
• Collaborate with partnership to secure product offtake |
Key Progress (Construction)
Existing | With CFP |
Existing | With CFP |
Progress
as of Mar'24
• HDS-4 test run successfully and |
produced on-specEURO-5 Gasoil |
since mid of February |
Feedstock Flexibility | Heavy Crude Sources |
Unit : % vol | |
40-50%Light |
96.0%
• All Modules were completely installed |
Going Forward
Crude | North | Middle | ||
America | East | |||
Medium | ||||
5 - 15% | ||||
100% | Crude | |||
Heavy | ||||
40-50% | ||||
Crude | South |
America | ||
Existing | With CFP |
• CDU-4 Complex is under focused for being ready to the next sequential test run
• CDU-4 Complex hydro-test and Instrument loop check are under
conducted
• RHCU/HCU construction is in progress
HDS-4 | CDU-4 | RHCU |
Successfully Start up | ||
Complex Start Up | Start Up | |
(Feb'24) | ||
Our Commitment towards Sustainability | 8 | ||||
Key Highlights | Performance | Outlook | Final Remark | ||
Key Market Highlight | Key Performance Highlights | Key Business Highlights | CFP Progress | ESG & Recognitions | |
The Highest Score (Top1%) for | |||||
Sustainability Awards of Honor | Sustainable Development for the | Highest Rating "AAA" in SET ESG | |||
in SET Awards 2023 | 9th year & DJSI Member for 11th | Ratings as a sustainable stock listed | |||
for 6th Consecutive years | consecutive year in oil & gas | for 9th Consecutive year | |||
refining and marketing industry |
E | S | G |
ENVIRONMENT | SOCIAL | GOVERNANCE |
Hope Library for Wat Manorom School | Thaioil Sport for Youth | |
Thaioil donated 300 books to the library | Thaioil and Thailand Swimming Association | |
Highlight CSR Activities | including story books, general | set up a program to train swimming skills to |
knowledge books and educational | youth in Lamchabang, which aims to | |
in Q1/ 2024 | ||
books for children | reduce drowning incidents | |
Presentation Agenda
Q1/24
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
OUTLOOK
FINAL REMARK
9
Financial Performance | 10 | |||||||||
Higher Net Operating Profit from Improving Refinery and Aromatics Business | ||||||||||
Key Highlights | Performance | Outlook | Final Remark | |||||||
Overall | Refinery | Aromatic & LAB | Base Oil | GIM | Power | Olefins | Solvent & Ethanol | All business | F/S & others | |
TOP Group Net Profit and Contribution*
Q1/23 | Q4/23 | Q1/24 |
4,554 MB | 2,944 MB | 5,863 MB |
Unit : Million Baht (MB)
Stock g/l & Write down on crude & product inventory
Q1/24
TOP Group Net Profit
5,863
Q4/23: 2,944
2,919 (QoQ)
Net Operating Profit
8,798
Q4/23 : 5,266
3,532 (QoQ)
Stock G/(L) & Write down on crude & product inventory
(742)
Q4/23 : (3,337)
2,595 (QoQ)
Other Items
Net operating profit
Other items incl FX g/l on asset & liability, hedging g/l, tax & non- recurring items(1)
Remark : (1) Other Items Details
• Financial Instruments gain/(loss), and unrealized on financial instruments gain/(loss), and others : Q1/23 645 MB, Q4/23 919 MB, Q1/24 (110) MB
• Foreign exchange gain / (loss) on foreign currency assets and liabilities : Q1/23 (619) MB, Q4/23 806 MB, Q1/24 763 MB
• Reversal of income tax (expense) : Q1/23 (1,805) MB, Q4/23 (710) MB, Q1/24 (1,464) MB
(2,193)
Q4/23 : 1,015
3,208 (QoQ)
Q1/23Q4/23Q1/24
*Contribution excluding Stock g/(l) & one-time items
Petroleum & Lube | Petchem | Power | Others & New Business |
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Thai Oil pcl published this content on 17 May 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 17 May 2024 08:50:00 UTC.